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Residents of the Big Apple will learn the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a race that will determine who runs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a time when the former president has vowed to send military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democrats against each other. The election has become an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have major implications for how the Democratic party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led his rival by double-digits in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in recent years amid allegations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as racist after sharing an artificial intelligence video that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, floundering in its response to the former president's power moves, takes in the near future.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to Americans' frustration at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not witnessed since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of considered, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has angered the party base. A New York rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of New York seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the metropolis has attracted an force of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them young or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to the capital and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about the progressive, and maybe that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in last year, not many had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by contrast, eased his way into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his father, the former governor, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has encountered difficulties in recent days, after video surfaced suggesting him suggesting the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and IDF.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd