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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward pattern. It frequently functions as a form of apology. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic improvement wins the prize. However, it fuels an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or just the most shocking surprise.

However the latest race is distinctly unique. The pool of candidates is unusually strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference champions falling away and recent underperformers improving collectively. Under an ordinary season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and entertaining year, he's up against several other elite coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right system, Williams has been given the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been able to create magic out of nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually each bet – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But the current is not a normal year!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. However he falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the off-field stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an initial hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still