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Two days remaining.

The English side's opening match in Australia begins on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we explore where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It’s challenging to score runs, right?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are even planning to turn up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has focused on the apparent challenge of scoring runs, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

Regarding batting in Australia, especially against fast bowling, no nation has been harder in which to score runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from English cricket paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average under 17.

In addition to Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home Test without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the duo, they have won by a combined 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in Adelaide four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, outcomes have not been affected – The tourists should take heed.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England could not find an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a factor in Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

Crawley, who famously struck the first ball of the last Ashes series for four, has also been identified as having the technique for Australia.

His batting average rises when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It is not just the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has brought him back, probably returning to number three.

Across seven matches in 2025, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful selection punt, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, spinners have averaged almost 44 in Australia, though Lyon's record holds up well compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against India, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was introduced, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

The series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have not won since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide.

England have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have visited 14 times since 1970 and won only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the itinerary are the identical, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test stages an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the tourists tackle with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the venue for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India last year.

Each match at the new ground has been claimed by the team batting first.

England often complicate floodlit Tests, when statistics indicate the pink ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The issue in {day-night matches|